[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Bearish Expectations Persist, Market Sentiment Pessimistic

On November 13, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,000-8,150 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,050-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price for high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,200-8,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day. For imported ferrochrome, the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,100-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day.

During the day, the ferrochrome market was in the doldrums, with the production schedule maintaining high levels. Ferrochrome producers actively produced given certain profitability, and new capacity continued to be commissioned, steadily covering the gap caused by reduced imports of ferrochrome, keeping ferrochrome prices under pressure. However, as the stainless steel market entered the mid-year off-season, production cuts occurred, weakening procurement demand for ferrochrome, with most downstream players adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Amid bearish expectations, the mainstream market view anticipated a possible decline of 200-400 yuan in the new round of mainstream steel mill tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome. In the short term, the ferrochrome market is expected to remain weak.

Raw material side, on November 13, 2025, the spot offer for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 54-54.5 yuan/mtu; the offer for 40-42% South African raw ore was 48.5-49 yuan/mtu; the offer for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was 55-55.5 yuan/mtu; the offer for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was 56-57 yuan/mtu; the offer for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 58-60 yuan/mtu; the offer for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate was 64-65 yuan/mtu, down 0.25 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. In the futures market, the offer for 40-42% South African fines was flat at $279-282/mt.

During the day, the chrome ore market saw limited adjustments, with bearish and pessimistic sentiment spreading. The weakening stainless steel market impacted ferrochrome prices, producers slowed their procurement pace, and price reduction counteroffers persisted, leading to widespread expectations of a decline in the chrome ore market. Constrained by continuous inventory buildup at ports and increasing sales pressure, offer prices were lowered, but considering the gradual approach to cost lines, further price concessions were limited, resulting in a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. In the futures market, the offer price for South African fines from overseas major mines remained steady at $282/mt, providing some support to the chrome ore market, but weak demand made transactions difficult, with domestic purchases mainly cautious and watchful. In the short term, relatively high ferrochrome production provides some support for ore demand, while the market awaits guidance from the new round of steel mill tenders and overseas market offers.